Sigh.....

Just sigh....I played for almost exactly 5 hours today and lost $802. I mean $800 isn't the end of the world, but it just sucks when you lose $2,300 in the last 500 hands to end up losing $800. So after starting off great the first two days of the week I am down about $2,000 during the next 4 days and 10,000 hands. 10K hand losing stretches are certainly no fun and pretty demoralizing when you feel like you have played well during it.

I was just sitting here pouting and thinking about what to write when I started questioning whether I really did play well during these last 10K hands or if I was just telling myself that I did...Here is what I came up with:

It is crazy to think that even over stretches of 10K hands your results really have very little to do with how well you actually played. I mean sure I could have lost a lot more than I did had I played really terrible, but I can say that I honestly tried to make the best decisions every single time I was faced with one. I did make one crying call today for an extra $400 on the river when I was sure that I was beat. Other than that hand I can't think of much I would have done different if I had the same situations over again and all of the same information was available to me.

In 10,000 hands there are ton of marginal situations that either go your way or they don't. If you run hot in those situations you are going to end up doing really well. If you run poorly you are going to lose no matter how well you played. In theory, if you run neutral in those spots and you are a winning player you will end up winning an amount that is equal to the edge you have over your competition. I obviously can't think of all the marginal situations that happened during that 10,000 hand stretch so I can't be sure if I ran good or bad in them, but I feel pretty confident that I ran below expectation. In fact, just that one huge $3K pot that I lost a few days ago was enough to make me a winner over those 10K hands. So, assuming that I ran neutral in all other marginal situations, I could say that I ran $2,400 below expectation since I had 85% equity in a $3,000 pot that I lost. Just using that one hand as my only variable over those hands you could say that 85% of the time I should have won around $1,000 and I should have lost the $2,000 that I actually lost only 15% of the time.

I guess what I am trying to say is....ITS NOT MY FAULT! haha. Noone ever thinks it is their fault when they lose, but I really do try to take responsibility for my losses when they happen. I can say that I played really close to my A-game throughout most of this stretch so there really isn't much responsibility to be taken here....unless my A-game weren't good enough to be beating the limits I am playing, but I know that is not the case.

I'll have better luck tomorrow. One more 5 hour day of playing will get me to my 35 hour goal and that is a solid week of playing.

After 6 days:
35 hours
+$1,136
15,383 hands
super duper crappy hourly rate of $37.27 and a win rate of 1.31 BB/100